The best way to predict the future is to invent it. – Alan Kay
Trying to keep tabs on the development of the metaverse is a full time job. The rate of new introductions and platform offerings is astonishing. My Google alerts are daily hitting me with the latest news.
While I would like to think I am contributing to the future, I realize that I am just a peon compared to others out there. The shape of the metaverse future is happening now. Issues like platform, universal avatars, security and technology standards are being road mapped now. There are many influencers. And one of them is Christian Renaud. His ability to shape the future of the metaverse is immense due to his position at Cisco. So his May 9th personal blog “The Future Will Be Better Tomorrow” is a MUST read for those who are trying to invent the future of the metaverse.
Reading through his entry, one can see the depth of his understanding, dealing with the vision versus the practical. Of course, my interest is in the development of open sims and Second Life®, so you can imagine some of the alarms that went off when I read his position #7:
Second Life and it’s walled/closed ilk will fade into the sunset in the next 24-36 months. Sorry folks, and Prok can go ahead and flame me for this, but I don’t see the concept of a MMOG sans G being a keeper against integrated-Internet 3D environments like Ogoglio, 3D interfaces on existing or emerging social tools like a Facebook 3D, or custom simulators once datasets are standardized. Look at the rapid progress towards standards with OpenSim and Sun’s Wonderland, and you can tell that walled garden virtual social worlds, even with all the great diversity of experience and creation, are one evolutionary step behind. Not that they will entirely die, as all MMOGs still live in some form or another (there is still a vibrant community around Ultima Online, which I beta tested around the same time I started at Cisco in 1996) with a hardcore group of citi/denizens who have so much time invested in that world that the switching costs are insurmountable for them.
My advice to the new Linden CEO? Make deals with MySpace, Facebook and Beebo to be their 3D environment.
My take on the next two years for Second Life is that they need to support the Open Sim effort and IBM’s “Behind the Firewall” effort and do everything possible to make the “portal” between this two efforts into SL as seamless as possible. I imagine it to be like a country border crossing. So the currency is different and not interchangeable but the avatars work in all worlds.
Also profitability is a key issue. While My Space and Face Book get all of the press, are they profitable? The Second Life model, as claimed by Linden Lab is suppose to be profitable due to hardware rentals and subscriptions services. The issue of profitability can not be dismissed so quickly and it is why I will argue that the Second Life platform will last longer than predicted.
I still maintain that the truly successful “corporate” presences in the metaverse over the next two years will be broken into three areas – entertainment, education and collaboration. If you think you are going to be able to sell things at this time, you are sadly mistaken. Another key metric is that the average user resides “IN” the metaverse in large chunks of time (average of 30+ minutes) versus a 30 sec or less impression, like TV or social spaces like Face Book. It is up to the companies if they want to pursue closed and controlled environments – or brave the future – open and chaotic environments.
So take the time to read Christian’s thoughts. He is one of the shapers of your metaverse future.
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